# Frozen causal well comparison: verified research release

This release adds the complete fifteen-method **training/validation first
phase** to the existing well research model and static result explorer.
The original eleven-method consumed-confirmation study stays separate.
No reserved values or predictions were opened, no candidate was promoted,
and industrial deployment remains unqualified.

## Immutable scientific content

| Artifact | Content revision |
| --- | --- |
| [Model, checkpoints, source and complete result audit](https://huggingface.co/sankalpsthakur/well-production-event-causal/tree/8f5707571840145eec1b53da22dd53adfd8814d7/foundation-validation) | `8f5707571840145eec1b53da22dd53adfd8814d7` |
| [Static source and saved-result data](https://huggingface.co/spaces/sankalpsthakur/well-event-transfer-audit/tree/56f1ec79461672d52b5294d0da587b226ab1c4d9) | `56f1ec79461672d52b5294d0da587b226ab1c4d9` |

[Open the live comparison](https://sankalpsthakur-well-event-transfer-audit.static.hf.space/foundation-validation.html).
Current live hosting is a mutable presentation; original scientific content
and replay inputs are pinned above. Subsequent receipt additions preserve all
these payloads except explicitly appended repository-card prose. Final receipt
commit identities are recorded in the local publication manifest; each public
receipt document is identified by its enclosing Hub revision.

Original output ZIP SHA256:
`12a07749800af0926b7055b9d4d6c2a7228c0c4e1b4b08cc18367663ce02d459`.
Original selection SHA256:
`e3be4520f81ba67c4d4c100f9d895d928ce0ae86b1a20a2d6d519207f9923954`.
All seventy original members, byte-identical input kits, eleven fitted compact
numeric checkpoints, full pretrained TSPulse and source/license notices remain
available. [Replay without fitting](https://huggingface.co/sankalpsthakur/well-production-event-causal/blob/8f5707571840145eec1b53da22dd53adfd8814d7/foundation-validation/REBUILD.md).

## What the study found

The validation-selected signal logistic covers 17/24 episodes and discovers
13/24 known onsets within 300 seconds. Eleven discoveries are in one filename
group; the other seven groups contribute two discoveries across eleven episodes.
At common support it has two false normal alarm episodes over 12.573 eligible
normal days and 0.622% eligible normal time in alarm. Group resampling gives a
wide onset-discovery interval, approximately 5.0%–85.0%; it does not authenticate
physical well independence.

The complete pretrained causal TSPulse adaptation covers 1/24 episodes and
discovers **zero** new known onsets within 300 seconds at its selected budget.
Disabled arms, unsupported episodes, warmup, unknown labels, common/native
eligibility, all searches and every group's outcome remain visible. This is an
original causal adaptation and selected validation analysis, not a paper
replication, fresh confirmation, pre-onset forecasting or field diagnosis.

## Verification and failures

- All **85 model payloads** and **five Space payloads** match anonymous
  fixed-revision downloads. Prior scientific/source objects are unchanged.
- Actual execution from those public downloads rebinds all seventy archive
  members, verifies **437 threshold searches**, all fifteen 140,708-decision
  grids, both eligibility cohorts and their 1,000-replicate group intervals.
- **The aggregate Mac model replay remains FAILED.** Thirteen arms pass; both
  TCNs fail original `atol 1e-10 / rtol 1e-9`. Full pretrained TSPulse passes
  its separately frozen tolerance. The original Linux provider is COMPLETE;
  these are distinct outcomes.
- Forty-eight frozen saved-checkpoint batch/determinism controls reproduce
  exactly on the observed Mac host: all 148 saved arrays / 133,504 values match.
  Every tested configuration still fails the original Linux saved-score
  tolerance. Determinism changes no scores; batch size does. No configuration
  is adopted and exact kernel/architecture contributions remain unisolated.
- Actual local and live browsers each pass **38 result cases**, plus two
  navigation cases. All fifteen methods, both cohorts, eight group filters,
  episode rows and uncertainty denominators match the frozen data. Desktop
  1280-pixel and phone 390-pixel layouts pass. Live observed warnings/errors:
  zero; document/data return HTTP 200, the revalidated script HTTP 304.
- The static runtime is RUNNING with null current/requested hardware. Its only
  source-byte addition is the declared platform creator-ID script. No CPU or
  paid Space is created. Original eleven-candidate confirmation behavior and
  its displayed 4.60 false alarms/day remain intact.
- The first anonymous verifier remains **FAILED** after catching Hub's
  generated storage rule for `foundation-validation/source-corpus-audit.json`.
  A separate reviewed verifier checks the exact added rule and every payload;
  it does not relabel that failure. Both local browser presentation failures
  and the original requests text-decoding observation are retained separately.

## Remaining gates

The eight reserved groups remain unopened until the inference/reload boundary
is qualified and a separate no-fitting confirmation runner is reviewed/frozen.
Public-pretraining contamination and physical group identity remain unresolved.
No target-device deadline/recovery, physical calibration, trusted site mapping,
plant/control acceptance, field adoption or qualified-expert growth is established.

Authored source is MIT; original upstream TSPulse Apache-2.0 notices are preserved.
Original 3W source attribution/rights remain in the existing model card.
No client architecture, private plant tags or identity documents are published.